Monthly Metals Mining Rundown and Peer Table - Premium Edition for Month Ending 28 Feb 2025

This past month’s metal price and top & bottom mining company peer group movers include:

This past month’s top 40 performing metals mining stocks (out of Peer Table’s 426) include (share price rounding errors apply, as sourced from Google Finance):

Metals mining announcements incorporated into this week’s Peer Table (resource updates, economic studies, changes in attributable project ownership) include (as recently reported in recent daily Rundowns / slightly outdated):

• 27 Feb 2025 (after-market TSX) - Lithium clay (and lithium hard rock and uranium) developer American Lithium (TSXV:LI) announced a resource update for its flagship, PEA-stage TLC lithium clay project in Nevada (company also has 2 other PEA stage projects: Falchani hard rock lithium project in Peru and the Macusani uranium project in Peru). The updated resource increased measured resource tonnes lithium carbonate by 47% to 6.17 Mt lithium carbonate grading 849 ppm Li, with the measured + indicated grade increasing 4% to 839 ppm Li (from 809 ppm Li). This should bode well for future possible maiden reserve estimate in a pre-feasibility and/or feasibility study. The overall resource estimate including inferred resources was down slightly, although grade was slightly higher suggesting a tighter resource. TLC’s company wide resources fell 4 % on this news to 20.4 Mt LCE (96% from lithium, rest uranium), which trade at market cap/t LCE resource of US$3.26/t LCE ($0.83/oz AuEq) - exactly in-line with our Peer Table’s lithium clay developer peer group median (despite having a 43% larger resource base than the peer group median 14.3 Mt LCE).

• 27 Feb 2025 - Lithium hard rock developer Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX:AVL) announced a 28% increase in measured and indicated resources at its Separation Rapids JV project in Ontario (to 12.98 Mt M&I grading 1.34% Li2O, 100% basis), of which AVL owns 40%. AVL’s 40% share of total resources now stands at 0.8 Mt LCE resources, which trade at a market cap/t LCE of US$53/t LCE ($14/oz AuEq) - a 59% discount to our lithium hard rock developer peer group median market cap/t of $130/t LCE ($33/oz AuEq).

• 26 Feb 2025 - Silver producer Silver X Mining (TSXV:AGX) announced a significant increased mineral resource estimate for its Nueva Recuperada mine in Peru, including a higher-grade portion at its The Plata Mining Unit development project (formerly Esperanza). Total company wide mineral resources increased by ~35% to 182 AgEq (2.1 Moz AuEq) - with a relatively high 56% of the resource metal value coming from Ag. AGX trades at the bottom of our silver producer market cap/oz pecking order, at market cap/oz of $0.15/oz AgEq ($13/oz AuEq), which is an 88% discount to the silver producer peer group median of $1.23/oz AgEq ($106/oz AuEq).

• 26 Feb 2025 - Copper (polymetallic) producer 29Metals (ASX:29M) announced its annual resources and reserves update for its Australian mines and projects. Reserves remained flat at 35.7Mt, demonstrating solid reserves replacement and conversion of resources over past year at the company’s two, high-grade long-life Australian mines. Overall resources were down slightly to 7.7 Blbs CuEq (grading a solid 2.9% CuEq, 62% from Cu, rest Au-Pb-Ag) or 12.1 Moz AuEq (from 12.1 Moz AuEq). 29M stock trades at a market cap/lb of US$0.02/lb CuEq - an 81% discount to our 24-company copper producer peer group median market cap/lb of $0.108/lb CuEq, after the stock got a +2.9% boost today intraday ASX (vs. group median performance of negative -1.2% including TSX movements yesterday and vs. today’s ASX mean performance of +0.3% - on a slight boost that is possibly related to Trump’s announced executive order along with the resulting uptick in coper price.

• 20 Feb 2025 - Last week, intermediate gold producer IAMGOLD (NYSE:IAG) announced its annual reserves and resources update, which had included an updated resource estimate for its 100%-owned Nelligan Project where indicated ounces grew by 56% to 3.1 Moz Au at a 13% higher-grade of 0.95 g/t Au, with inferred ounces growing by 33% to 5.2 Moz with grade up 14% to 0.96 g/t Au. Although mineral reserves were down a slight 5% after accounting for depletion, overall measured and indicated (“M&I”) resources (inclusive of reserves) were up a slight 3% with overall total resources including inferred increasing by ~6%. So the previous year’s stated reserves were not quite fully replaced, significant reserves remain, and total mineral resources look to be growing more substantially, paving the the way for more conversion to reserves in the future. IMG trades just below the middle of the pack of our intermediate gold producer peer group on market cap/oz resource at $101/oz Au, which is 8% below the peer group median of $110/oz AuEq, despite AIG resources being 100% gold (no other metals/gold-equivalents) and that fact that IAG’s overall resource size of 32.8 Moz Au far exceeds the peer group median and mean of 7.2 and 11.6 Moz AuEq.

• 23 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producers Equinox Gold (NYSE:EQX) and Calibre Mining (TSE:CXB) announced a friendly at-market merger, whereby EQX will acquire all outstanding shares of CXB to create a major Americas-focused gold producer with mines operating in 5 countries anchored by two high-quality, long-life, low-cost Canadian gold mines (the Greenstone Gold Mine in Ontario which achieved commercial production in November 2024 and the Valentine Gold Mine currently under construction) with anticipated production of 0.95Moz gold in 2025 (excluding Valentine and Los Filos). The at-market deal pricing resulting in no share premium for CXB shareholders does not appear so attractive for CXB shareholders at a first glance, who are awaiting first gold pour at Valentine Lake targeted for mid-2025, and from which a 66.7% approval will be required for this merger to go through. Although, if CXB faces risks of capex over-runs at Valentine (Lake) mine, for which construction was announced to be 73% complete on 9 July 2024 (in a release that included a photograph showing liner installation progressing on a large tailings dam that was reported to be 96% complete), may have suggested that 73% of initial capex of C$463M (reported in 2022 FSU update) had been spent and that 27% or C$125M had been remaining. Although in the quarters that followed (Q3 and Q4 2024), CXB reported company-wide growth capex of C$261M, and today’s announced merger also included a separate private placement of convertible notes worth US$75M being issued to a group of investors which included EQX (funds to be used for “funding expenses related to the Transaction, and general corporate purposes until completion of the transaction”), which could possibly include some provisions to mitigate capex overrun risks at Valentine Lake. And so CXB shareholders may very well accept this at-market merger (acquisition) that is targeted to close Q2 2025 (around the time of Valentine’s first gold pour), as is currently implied by the CXB and EQX share prices (suggesting a 77% likelihood that the deal will go through, and an arb spread of ~0% on CXB shares). Until the deal does close, we keep both old EQX and CXB in our Peer Table, and add a new hypothetical/proforma entity “New Equinox” alongside both companies in our intermediate gold producer peer group, except with an additional 264M shares out (vs. old EQX) for 720M shares (which excludes additional potential shares from concurrently announced convertible notes that are separate from the merger) and with mineral resources of both CXB and EQX combined for, which trades at a (hypothetical) market cap/oz resource of US$91/oz Au - a 17% discount to peer group median $110/oz AuEq while also having a large market cap of US$4.8B (vs. group median $1.2B).

  

  Valentine Gold Mine Tailings Management Facility (dam embankment liner at 96% complete) (Source: Calibre Mining, Press Release 9 July 2024).

  

• 24 Feb 2025 - Silver (and Zn-Pb-Au) producer Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) announced a significant increase to its resources at its 85%-owned Boumadine project in Morocco, resulting in a 120% increase in that project’s indicated resources, a 19% increase to the project’s inferred resources since the last (April 2024) update, and a ~22% increase to overall company-wide mineral resources to ~5.5Moz AuEq from ~4.5 Moz AuEq (~476 Moz AgEq from ~371 Moz AgEq) which are 38% Ag and rest Zn-Pb-Au by metal value, and include the company’s 100%-owned, producing, pure-play silver mine (Zgounder, also in Morocco). AYA trades at a market cap/oz of US$133/oz AuEq ($1.54/oz AgEq) - a slight premium to the middle its silver producer pack (median) market cap/oz of US$104/oz AuEq ($1.20/oz AgEq), which appears well-deserved in part due to: (a) the rare/scarce pure-play silver nature of AYA’s production from its flagship Zgounder mine (silver is usually produced alongside other secondary metals or as a byproduct/secondary metal itself), and (b) major upside from its much larger Boudmadine project that is next in line. All of this might make AYA an ideal take-out target for larger silver producers such as Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDA) whose market cap is $3.4B vs. AYA’s $1.1B (or $220/oz AuEq vs AYA’s $133/oz AuEq). CDA recently closed its acquisition SilverCrest and also has a fairly high silver share of resources & production.

• 21 Feb 2025 - Lithium hard rock developer Green Technology Metals (ASX:GT1) announced an optimized PEA for its wholly-owned flagship Seymour project in Ontario, which paves the way for a DFS and then mine development. The PEA contemplates Seymour on a standalone basis after a prior 2023 PEA also incorporated the company’s other Root project, also in Ontario. Initial capex was reduced by $10M to $172M, with an after-tax NPV8 of US$251M (based on a 5.5% spodumene product priced at $1,851/t FOB Thunder Bay, which was lower than the price assumed in 2023 PEA). GT1 trades super cheap relative to peers, at a market cap / t resource of $0.73/t LCE ($0.19/oz AuEq) - a massive 99% discount to our lithium hard rock developer peer group median of $30/t LCE (which is a substantial premium to lithium brine and clay developer medians of $2.1/t LCE and $0.84/t LCE due to the nearer-term cash flow potential of being able to sell concentrated spodumene to China for final processing into lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, whereas for brines and clays it is not possible to produce and sell such an intermediary product requiring so little processing). Spodumene concentrate’s composition and its pricing (often dependent on demand from various Chinese buyers) are somewhat variable, and are not as commoditized as final product counterparts lithium carbonate and hydroxide are. As such, spodumene concentrate pricing is less predictable and transparent, and cannot always be reliably pegged to some factor of lithium carbonate pricing. Spodumene is not one of the 9 important precious metals or critical minerals covered in our Peer Table, and cannot be easily compared to other economic study results that are dependent on lithium carbonate or hydroxide pricing, so we are unable to incorporate economic study results (and P/NAV) in our Peer Table for studies that contemplate spodumene concentrate as a final saleable product (as is the case with most lithium hard rock developer peers currently).

  

  Rendered Seymour Project layout model showing views of processing plant, mining, and water management infrastructure (Source: Green Technology Metals)

  

  Source: Google Finance, Mining Company Reports, Host Rock Capital (21 Feb 2025)

• 20 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer and copper producer Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG) announced its 2024 year-end estimates for mineral reserves and mineral resources, which were largely unchanged from last year demonstrating solid replacement of reserves and resources (gold reserves down slightly, copper reserves up slightly, overall resources up slightly on back of the initial 736 koz Au resource at the Goldfield project in Nevada). CG’s resources of 26Moz AuEq (42% Au, 38% Au, rest Ag) trade at market cap/oz resource of US$54/oz AuEq ($0.085/lb CuEq), which is a 53% discount to its intermediate gold producer peer group median of $115/oz and a 25% discount to its copper producer peer group median of $0.11/lb CuEq.

• 20 Feb 2025 - Gold explorer Northgold AB (STO:NG) announced a resource update for its flagship 100%-owned Kopsa gold and copper project in the top tier jurisdiction of Finland, resulting in an 8% increase (since last year) to the deposit’s gold-equivalent resource ounces to 814.8 koz AuEq grading 1.09 g/t AuEq (0.85 g/t Au and 0.17% Cu) from only 385m of drilling (yielding an outstanding accumulation rate of 170 koz AuEq/additional m drilled, although historic drilling data was also used). The increase of 65.3Koz AuEq exceeds the company’s guidance of >20koz that was previously stated by the company in its corporate presentation for this shallow north zone. The cutoff grade remained at 0.5 g/t AuEq, and based on past announced resource estimates and grade-tonnage relationships could possibly be decreased to 0.3 g/t AuEq resulting in a ~10% increase to ounces (offset by a ~10% decrease in grade). But the real prize for investors at Kopsa could be what lies beneath, as highlighted by past geophysical surveys that the company says could lead to a deposit size in the range of 1.2-1.5 Moz AuEq in the medium-term (together with additional increases of >20koz from the shallow west target and >150koz from the south down-dip target). Northgold trades at a market cap/oz resource of US$1.51/oz AuEq - a stark 91% discount to our 62-company gold explorer peer group median of $16.6/oz AuEq. This discount does not seem justified given Kopsa alone is approaching the 1 Moz mark and comes with a dominant regional central Finland land package that already hosts several nearby drilled satellite prospects and deposits that require follow-up.

  

  Block model for Kopsa 2025 MRE, compared to previous 2024 MRE. (Source: Northgold AB)

  

  Kopsa resource growth history (Source: Northgold AB)

• 20 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer Mandalay Resources (TSX:MDN) reported its 2024 mineral reserves and resources, showing that the company more than replaced its reserves and measured and indicated (M&I) resources - increasing reserves by 9% and M&I resources by 14%, both after depletion. And near equally as important was the substantial growth in inferred resources across both of its producing mines (Bjarkdal in Sweden and Costerfield in Australia) paving the way for future reserves expansion, and resulting in a 46% increase in overall gold resources (to 2.74 Moz Au from 1.88 Moz Au). This increase in MDN’s overall resources lowers MDN’s market cap/oz resource to 86/oz AuEq (including some copper and silver resources from one of MDN’s non-core projects that increases its total resources to 3.61 Moz AuEq), which is now a 26% discount to our intermediate gold producer peer group median market cap/oz of $117/oz AuEq.

• 20 Feb 2025 - Lithium brine developer LithiumBank (TSXV:LBNK) announced a 30% increase to its overall lithium resources at its flagship 100%-owned Boardwalk project in Alberta, which included 5.195 Mt LCE measured and indicated resources grading 81.6 mg/l Li, and which paves the way for a sizeable mineral reserve in a future possible PFS. Together with the company’s secondary but much larger 21.7 Mt LCE deposit (Park Place project), LBNK hosts one of North America’s largest inventory of lithium resources. LBNK trades cheap at a P/NAV (market cap/NPV) of 0.005x based on its 2023 PEA results at our Reference lithium price of US$20,000/t LCE - a steep 87% discount to our lithium brine developer median of 0.038x, which is at least partly due to the relatively low grade of LBNK’s groundwater brine projects in Alberta vs. the higher-grade salar brines of Latin America held by many of its peers. LBNK also trades at a steep discount (of 79%) to its closer, yet more advanced, fellow Alberta groundwater brine peer E3 Metals (TSXV:ETL), which is PFS-stage, has a significantly larger measured and indicated resource size, a slightly smaller overall resource size, and trades at a P/NAV 0.024x.

• 19 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) reported its annual mineral reserves and resources statement for end of year 2024, resulting in a reported 27% increase to reserves after depletion (41% increase before accounting for depletion) and few % increase to mineral resources to 12Moz AuEq which are 93% from Au (from our previously retrieved 11.6 Moz AuEq) after depletion, demonstrating solid reserves and resources replacement. OGC operates mines in New Zealand, Philippines, and USA, and trades at a market cap/oz resources of US$182/oz AuEq - just below our intermediate gold producer mean of $186/oz AuEq and some above median of $116/oz AuEq, with this premium and large resource base of 12Moz (vs. peer group median resource base of 6.9Moz AuEq) positioning OGC as a solid take-out target for the majors looking to replace diminishing reserves and resources.

• 19 Feb 2025 - Gold (polymetallic) explorer Strickland Metals (ASX:STK) released a mineral resource estimate for it 100%-owned Rogozna project in Serbia, which was reported to be a 23% increase in the project’s gold-equivalent ounces to a reported 6.69Moz AuEq grading 1.2 g/t AuEq (0.61 g/t Au + Cu-Zn-Pb), which included a ~58% higher-grade maiden resource estimate for the Medenovan deposit reported to be 1.28Moz AuEq grading 1.9 g/t AuEq (0.77 g/t Au + Cu-Zn-Ag-Pb) but importantly the estimate still excludes the neighboring Kotlovi prospect where 40m at 2.6 g/t Au from 558m had been drilled among other intersections. Medenovan (and Kotlovi) looks to be a game-changer given its ~58% higher grade than the overall project resources, and while this new mineralization is a bit deeper, it should be just high enough grade to be amenable to underground mining methods, especially at currently high and rising gold prices. And this somewhat marginal underground-mineable grade should also give the stock good torque on a rising gold price relative to peers. STK trades at a market cap/oz resource of US$16.1/oz AuEq - a slight discount to our 61 company gold explorer peer group median market cap/oz of $16.7/oz AuEq.

  

  Kotlovi to Medenovac cross-section (Source: Strickland Metals)

• 19 Feb 2025 - Intermediate (high-grade) gold producer Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG) released its annual resource and reserve update, which resulted in a 12% increase to total resources to a new high 7.06Moz Au measured and indicated resources grading 7.17g/t Au and 5.46Moz Au inferred resources grading 5.27g/t Au, plus silver credits resulting in a 12% increase to our estimated gold-equivalent resources (at our estimated 3-month trailing average metal price) to 9.61 Moz Au. LUG’s high-grade, large-size, low-cost, high-production, and growth potential make it one of the better take-out targets for a major looking to add a globally-dominant high-grade mine to its portfolio.

• 19 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer St Barbara (ASX:SBM) released its annual resource and reserves update, which increased total resources slightly to 6.9Moz Au from 6.7Moz Au, demonstrating solid resources (and reserves) replacement.

• 18 Feb 2025 - Senior gold producer Alamos Gold (NYSE:AGI) released its annual resource and reserve update, which increases total gold resources very slightly to 28.2Moz Au (from 28 Moz), demonstrating solid resources (and reserves) replacement.

• 18 Feb 2025 - Silver producer and intermediate gold producer Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) released its annual resource update, which increased total gold-equivalent resources slightly to 17.6 Moz AuEq (55% from Au and 38% from Ag) from 17.4 Moz AuEq (at our estimated 3-month trailing average metal prices) including the resources from the recent acquisition of SilverCrest and Las Chispas project in Mexico where the company also operates other mines.

• 18 Feb 2025 - Near-best-in-class gold developer Rupert Resources (TSX:RUP) announced PFS results for its flagship Ikkari project in Finland, which yielded a post-tax NPV5 of US$1.7B with an exceptional IRR of 38% and low AISC of $918/oz Au from initial capex of $575M (at a reported long term consensus gold price of $2,150/oz Au), with expected first gold pour announced to be in 2030. The study included the project’s first-ever mineral reserve of 52Mt grading 2.1g/t - representing a 10% increase in grade and a 27% decrease in total ore tonnes processed compared to the mill throughput in the 2022 PEA, which had also incorporated some additional Ikkari resources that were not converted to reserves, along with the much of the nearby Pahtvarra satellite deposit that contains additional resources of 7.8Mt grading around 2g/t Au (all of which may eventually make it into the mine plan come FS and beyond). While comparatively to 2022 PEA, capex is up slightly, NPV is down slightly, and AISC is up slightly, some of this is due to the shrinking of the overall project size (which may grow back into the size contemplated in PEA and beyond as this PFS is just a snapshot in time), and all of this should be offset by the significant de-risking step forward associated with the more-advanced PFS and maiden reserve estimate (as looks to be confirmed by the RUP share price that is up +2% today on this announcement). RUP trades at a P/NAV (market cap/NPV) of 0.66x (at our Reference gold price of $1,800/oz Au) - a seemingly justified premium (to peer group mean of 0.49x and median 0.25x) for its low-risk/top-tier jurisdiction of Finland, its relatively large overall deposit & project size, and relatively high-grade & low-strip open pit deposit.

  

  Source: Google Finance, Mining Company Reports, Host Rock Capital (18 Feb 2025)

• 18 Feb 2025 - Nickel and PGM explorer Bravo Mining (TSXV:BRVO) released an updated mineral resource estimate for its flagship Luanga project in Brazil, resulting in roughly a 58% increase in nickel-equivalent resources to 2.8 Blbs NiEq (or 7.6 Moz AuEq or 20.8 Moz PdEq, all at our estimated 3-month trailing metal prices). This project is PGM powerhouse with 72% of its resource metal value coming from Pd+Pt+Rh - with a significant 15% share of this total resource metal value coming from the highly-scarce Rh (Rhodium), amounting to 0.653 Moz Rh grading a decent 0.08-0.09 g/t Rh (Rh trades now at $4,650/oz Rh but in 2008 traded up to nearly $10,000/oz). PGM prices are still largely down in recent years, but may play catch-up to gold soon on precious metals (gold) substitution demand, which would bode well for BRVO’s high PGM exposure. BRVO is up 11% today on this news, making our daily top 40 performers list, and trades at a market cap/oz resource of US$20.8/oz PdEq (with a high Pd metal value share of 36% - excluding the significant Pt and Rh) - a seemingly justified premium for its solid PdEq resource grade reported by company to be just over 2g/t PdEq, and its high PGM share of resources (Pd+Pt+Rh making up 72% by metal value) including near-best-in-class exposure to lesser-known PGM, Rh.

• Senior gold producer Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM) provided an update on its 2024 exploration results and exploration plans for 2025. The update included an updated mineral reserve and resource statement. Reserves increased 1% year-over-year to 54.3Moz, with measured and indicated resources (exclusive of reserves) decreasing 2.3% to 43Moz, and total resources also including reserves and inferred resources increasing by 2.3% to 145.6Moz AuEq (94% from Au). While not the most appropriate valuation method for producers, AEM trades at a market cap/oz resource of $332/oz AuEq (14 Feb) - a 51% premium to the 9 company senior gold producer median of $220/oz. This premium seems well justified given AEM’s dominant size of US$51B vs median $14B and its total resources of 146Moz vs median 61Moz, and on top of this the company’s especially low country risk profile versus most of its peers, and the fact that much of its production is higher-grade and lower-cost than most of its peers.

• Copper developer Trilogy Metals (TSE:TQM) filed a PEA Technical Report for its 50%-owned Bornite project in Alaska (secondary project). The study results were pre-released on 15 Jan 2025 but had excluded the NPV sensitivity analysis that is now provided in the technical report and added to our Peer Table. Post-tax NPV8 was US$522M (100% ownership basis) at $4.2/lb Cu from initial capex of $504M. This study increases the company’s combined NPV (including the 2023 FS-stage Arctic project also in Alaska) to $1,046M (50% basis for each project, at our 3-month trailing average copper price which also happens to be $4.20/lb Cu), and the stock trades at a market cap of 21% (14 Feb) of this (inferring a P/NAV of 0.21x) - a slight premium to our copper developer mean of 0.17x (and median of 0.06x) in part due to the advanced feasibility-stage of its flagship Arctic project.

• 12 Feb 2025 - Gold developer Saturn Metals (ASX:STN) announced a resource update for its flagship PEA-stage Apollo Hill project in Western Australia, which increased total resources by 10% to 2.03Moz grading 0.53g/t Au and Measured and Indicated resources by 14% to 1.15Moz, following an additional 8,780m of drilling completed since mid-2023. And more resource growth can be expected as this 8,780m is part of an ongoing 65,000m drill program being completed ahead of a PFS targeted for completion in late 2025. What’s particularly impressive is the track record of steadily-increasing resources since the Company listed in 2018 - and there appears to be significantly more mineralization that is already drilled and outside of the current resource pit shell. With this resource update, STN trades at a market cap/oz of US$27/oz - roughly in-line with our gold developer peer group (58 stocks) median of $24/oz - and at a P/NAV of 0.086x (based on company’s 2023 PEA results) at our 3-month trailing average spot gold price estimate of $2,674/oz Au - in line with our gold developer peer group (56 stocks) median P/NAV of 0.08x.

• 11 Feb 2025 - Gold developer US Gold Corp (NYSE:USAU) announced a PFS update for its 100%-owned CK gold project in Wyoming, that incorporates recent permitting and optimization advances, and paves the way for a feasibility study. The PFS update’s post-tax NPV5 was $356M from initial capex of only $277M, with near-lower-quartile-range AISC of 937/oz AuEq (CK resource is 68% gold, 30% copper, 2% silver, by metal value), which helps justify USAU’s premium P/NAV of 0.48x at our Reference gold price of $1,800/oz (vs. mean 0.49x and median 0.24x) and a P/NAV of 0.18x at our recent gold price estimate of $2,674/oz Au (vs. mean 0.14x and median 0.08x).

• 10 Feb 2025 - Low-cost, intermediate gold producer Emerald Resources NL (ASX:EMR) announced a resource and reserve update for its flagship producing Okvau gold mine in Cambodia, which increased its reserves by a net 143 koz (245 koz including depletion of 102 koz), resulting in a new reserve of 700 koz Au grading 1.5g/t Au (including a higher-grade in-pit portion of 0.6 koz grading 1.7g/t Au) - a 27% increase from the 550 koz reserve announced in March 2024. And this reserves growth after depletion was achieved while ALSO growing the mine’s combined mineral resources by a net 34koz (136koz including 102koz of depletion), resulting in a slightly larger resource of 910 koz compared to that of March 2024, which the company highlights continues to support its view that resources will be replenished on an ongoing basis.” Total company mineral resources including the company’s two non-producing development projects stand at 3.05Moz grading 1.5g/t Au. EMR trades in our Peer Table at a premium to most peers, at a market cap of US$1.8B (or market cap/oz Au resource of US$594/oz), apparently given the high productivity and profitability of its flagship producing Okvau (and the anticipated productivity of its two development stage projects for which feasibility studies are underway and development activities are slated to begin before yearend: Memot project also in Cambodia with similar high open-pit grades, and Dingo project in Western Australia). EMR’s high productivity/profitability of its mineral assets is driven by its relatively high open-pit reserve grade of 1.7g/t Au, which has helped lead to consistent near-lower-quartile-range AISC below $1,000/oz recently and solid cash flows (Q4 pre-tax operating cash flow from Oktvau was US$58.4M, up from $37.8M in Q3 on higher gold prices) after the mine just came online in 2021. This high productivity/profitability of EMR’s assets make EMR a good potential take-out target for larger gold producer looking to add growing cash flow from EMR’s single producing mine and 2 near-development projects - perhaps comparable to how Roxgold was acquired by (merged with) Fortuna Mining (TSX:FVI) in 2021 for a transaction value of C$1.1B, for Roxgold’s low-cost, producing Yaramoko mine in Burkina Faso along with its feasibility-stage Seguela project in Cote D’Ivoire (which FVI later constructed and is now producing) and a pipeline of exploration projects. And although Cambodia may still be considered an emerging mining jurisdiction (not so different than some West African jurisdictions such as Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire), investors may be encouraged to see that it was included in the Fraser Institute’s annual survey for the first time ever earlier this year in its latest 2023 survey (new 2024 survey is due for release in the coming weeks). https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/2023-annual-survey-of-mining-companies.pdf

• 7 Feb 2025 - Gold developer (and small-scale gold producer) Horizon Minerals (ASX:HRZ) announced that its scheme of arrangement to merge with Poseidon Nickel (ASX:POS) has been approved by the Surpreme Court of Western Australia, and the deal is due to be effective on 10 Feb 2025. HRZ acquires all outstanding POS shares on the cheap for ~A$30M (announced on 25 Oct 2024) in stock helped by the suppressed nickel market, which comes with the Black Swan nickel-polymetallic mine/project (with a 2022 feasibility study) currently on care and maintenance. The mine has an existing 2.2 mtpa mill (with reported replacement value of ~A$150M) that the company aims to repurpose to accept mill feed from its existing mineral resources around Kalgoorie some ~40km away from Black Swan, which could expedite HRZ’s graduation into a mid-tier (intermediate) commercial gold producer. HRZ’s pre-existing projects include the PFS-stage Penny’s Find gold project and a existing small-scale producing mine (Boorara). We add POS’s Black Swan nickel polymetallic resources of 1.1 Blbs NiEq or 2.9Moz AuEq (89% Ni plus small share Cu-Co-Ag-Au) to HRZ’s mineral resource holdings in our Peer Table, which more than doubles HRZ’s AuEq resources from 1.8Moz to 4.7Moz AuEq (now 42% Au, 55% Ni, rest Cu-Co-Ag), while we preemptively increase HRZ’s shares outstanding in our Peer Table by ~30% to 2.06B sh according to the terms of the transaction announced 25 Oct 2024 that is due to take effect 10 Feb 2025. Our Peer Table now shows that HRZ trades pro-forma at a market cap/oz of $14/oz AuEq (after weekend) - a 33% discount to our gold developer median $21/oz AuEq and an 88% discount to our intermediate gold producer median $118/oz AuEq (and a 14% discount to nickel developer peer median of $16.2/oz AuEq). We also now include HRZ in our Nickel developer peer group and we remove POS from the Peer Table which is due to be delisted in the coming days).

• 6 Feb 2025 (after-market TSX) - Gold explorer Dakota Gold (NYSE:DC) announced a substantial S-K 1300 compliant resource upgrade for its Richmond Hill project in South Dakota, which increased its total gold resources by some ~4x to 9.7 Moz Au + some silver totalling 10.7 Moz AuEq, which includes a potentially heap leachable 3.65 Moz Au portion in the Measured and Indicated category grading 0.463 g/t Au. While the resource grades are modest in the 0.38-0.54 g/t Au range (plus some silver), the majority of the resources are reported to be potentially heap leachable, which could result in low capex and opex to be evaluated in an initial economic assessment expected by mid-2025 (which would graduate DC to our gold developer peer group). Stock traded up 23% on this news - giving DC the #8 top performing this past week after finishing the week up +33.9%. DC now (at weekend) trades at a market cap/oz resource of $27 /oz AuEq - a premium to our gold explorer median market cap/oz of $14.7, but still a 29% discount from the peer group mean of $38/oz AuEq, and perhaps more imporantly given the ongoing economic study that is being complete, DC is a 37% discount to our gold developer peer group mean of $43/oz AuEq (and a slight premium to our gold developer median $21/oz AuEq). Correction: DC’s market cap according to Google Finance was previously understated in our earlier daily version of this note, and has been corrected herein.

• 3 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer Cerrado Gold (TSXV:CERT) announced that is has agreed to acquire silver (and zinc, lead, copper, gold) developer Ascendant Resources (TSE:ASND) along with exposure to its low cost, 86 Moz AgEq (1 Moz AuEq) Lagoa Salgada VMS project in Portugal, with a post-tax NPV of US147M and IRR of 39% (at $22.5/oz Ag) from initial capex (including contingency) of US$164.35M, according to a 2023 DFS (that will be optimized). CERT reports that Lagoa Salgada has EIA approval due in Q2/25, an optimized feasibility study due in Q3/25 (aims to improve NPV/capex ratio), with a construction decision expected by yearend. The deal is set to include multiple private placements, that are expected to result in CERT issuing 27.7 M additional new shares for a 131.3 million share (pro-forma) upon completion, and with the merged entity owning 80% of the Salgada VMS project (from ASND’s previously reported effective ownership of 21.25% pending additional milestones to increase). We preemptively add (with a footnote) the additional shares to CERT’s market cap in the Peer Table which increases CERT’s market cap to US$32M profoms (as of this weekend, after stock rose 19% this week), and we also add 80% of Lagoa Salfada resources to CERT’s resource holdings,